NASCAR Fantasy Picks for the 2024 AdventHealth 400

This weekend in NASCAR Fantasy, sees the Cup Series take on the AdventHealth 400. Who should be in your lineup for tomorrow’s race?

The race is the first of two events from the 1.5-mile racetrack as the Cup Series will return to the venue for the Playoffs in late September. NASCAR’s AdventHealth 400 will take place Sunday, May 5th at 3:00 pm ET (12:00 pm PT) with television coverage on Fox Sports 1. Radio listeners can tune in on either the Motor Racing Network or SiriusXM’s NASCAR Radio.

NASCAR Fantasy Live gives fans the chance to partake in driver selection each Cup Series race weekend. One will pick five starters and one “garage” driver per event. The garage driver will not receive any points but can replace a starter who may face trouble in the first part of the race. At the end of stage two, picks will lock, and no changes can be made. Points are awarded based on stage points and finishing positions in addition to four “head-to-head” driver picks. A driver may only be picked ten (10) times across the 26-race Regular Season and then five (5) times in the 10-race Playoffs. See NASCAR’s website here for rules of how to play.

My suggestions are NOT my personal lineup for Sunday’s race. See immediately below for a recap of my individual results from Dover Motor Speedway’s Würth 400. Further below are my recommendations for this weekend’s AdventHealth 400 from Kansas Speedway.

STARTERS

• Denny Hamlin – 4 uses left
  • 40 Place Points (1st) + 13 Stage Points (S1 – 6th, S2 – 3rd) = 53 Total Points
• Martin Truex Jr. – 6 uses left
  • 34 Place Points (3rd) + 17 Stage Points (S1 – 1st, S2 – 4th) = 51 Total Points
• Kyle Busch – 8 uses left
  • 33 Place Points (4th) + 9 Stage Points (S1 – 7th, S2 – 6th) = 42 Total Points
• Alex Bowman – 8 uses left
  • 29 Place Points (8th) + 12 Stage Points (S1 – 8th, S2 – 2nd) = 41 Total Points
• Tyler Reddick – 6 uses left
  • 26 Place Points (11th) + 12 Stage Points (S1 – 3rd, S2 – 7th) = 38 Total Points
• William Byron – KEPT IN GARAGE, 5 uses left
  • 4 Place Points (33rd) + 9 Stage Points () = 13 Total Points

FEATURED MATCHUPS

• Tyler Reddick vs. Kyle Busch
  • PICK: Reddick
  • RESULT: Incorrect (Reddick = 11th, Busch = 4th)
• Alex Bowman vs. Ross Chastain
  • PICK: Bowman
  • RESULT: Correct (Bowman = 8th, Chastain = 12th)
• Kyle Larson vs. Chase Elliott
  • PICK: Larson
  • RESULT: Correct (Larson = 2nd, Elliott = 5th)
• Denny Hamlin vs. Christopher Bell
  • PICK: Hamlin
  • RESULT: Correct (Hamlin = 1st, Bell = 34th)

RANKING (after 11 of 36 races)

• Weekly Points = 255 PTS.
• Total Season Points = 2,172 PTS.
• Collective Rankings = 3,113th (+1,955 positions from Talladega Superspeedway)

KANSAS STARTERS

PICK 1 – Denny Hamlin

For a third time, Denny Hamlin beat your favorite driver. Excluding his Busch Light Clash trophy, points-paying victories at Bristol Motor Speedway, Richmond Raceway, and Dover last weekend have moved the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran to 13th on the all-time wins list (54 total).

Hamlin brings a strong resume to Kansas with no appearance outside the Top 20 in the last 13 Cup Series races. He has finished Top 5 in the last five races and Top 2 in the last three. Last Spring, he won for a third time at the track and first since Fall 2019. Without mistake, Hamlin could very well go back-to-back.

PICK 2 – Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson has been a race-winning factor every single weekend. However, various mistakes have kept the 2021 Champion away from more than his one trophy at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. His 2nd place finish at Dover was his fifth Top 5 of the season.

Larson nearly won 2023’s Kansas Spring race before contact from the aforementioned Hamlin on the final lap. An Average Running Position (A.R.P.) of 7.35 ranks 1st among all active drivers as well as one of only two drivers with Top 10s in all four Next Gen races. Larson has also led a Series-high 213 laps in those four events. Keep an eye on No. 5.

PICK 3 – Bubba Wallace

Two weeks of bad luck have slid Bubba Wallace to two points outside of the Playoff cut. However, his 2024 has shown vast improvements, and he enters a racetrack that can change course.

Although being ranked 20th in all-time average finish at Kansas, Wallace has finished Top 10 in three of the last four races. His second Cup Series victory came in the 2022 Fall event leading the final 43 laps. Last Fall, Wallace was running in 2nd before a tire failure led to a result of 32nd. Additionally, he is one of five drivers with Top 10 stage appearances in six or more of the eight Next Gen stages.

PICK 4 – Alex Bowman

Entering Texas Motor Speedway, I had Alex Bowman ranked at 15th in my Quarter One review. Although he is not getting the stage points, he is getting the finishes. Entering Kansas, “The Showman” has two straight Top 8s and six total since this year.

With Hendrick Motorsports, Bowman has finished ten of twelve races inside the Top 11 with no finish outside 18th. He did miss last year’s Spring race, but he has finished all three Next Gen starts inside the Top 10. Bowman led 107 of the 267 laps in the Fall of 2022 before a late descent to 4th. Can this be the week he snaps his 72-race winless streak?

PICK 5 – Tyler Reddick

Tyler Reddick is emerging as a true Championship threat. His four Top 5s and seven Top 10s rank 2nd and 1st, respectively, amongst Cup competition this year. A 2nd at Las Vegas and 4th at Texas are signs of bright things for this weekend.

Reddick enters Kansas as the defending race winner. He, Kurt Busch (2022 Spring), and the aforementioned Bubba Wallace have taken three of the four Next Gen trophies home to 23XI Racing. Reddick is one of two drivers to have led in all four of those events with four of eight Top 10 stage finishes. I like his chances in your NASCAR Fantasy lineup.

ALTERNATE OPTIONS

Chase Elliott

• 2018 Fall victor
• Best career Kansas average finish (10.6), second-best Top 10% rate (62.5%)
• 14 straight Top 20 finishes in Cup

Christopher Bell

• Joins Reddick with drivers to have led in every Next Gen race (67 total)
• One of four drivers with two or more Top 5s in last four events

Ryan Blaney

• Seven of eight Next Gen Top 10 stage finishes (leads category)
• Fourth-ranked A.R.P. since 2022 (9.40)

Ross Chastain

• Six Top 10 Stage finishes in Next Gen
• Third-best Next Gen A.R.P. behind Larson and Chastain (8.95)

HIDDEN GEM?

Brad Keselowski

• 14 of 28 career races inside Top 10 (50%)
• Fall of 2023 Stage Two winner with 4th-best race A.R.P. (6.7)

AVOID!

Daniel Suarez

• 18th-ranked average finish in all Kansas races
• Has only finished two of 14 Cup Series events inside Top 10

Michael McDowell

• Average finish of 27.5; second-worst of all drivers to make track start
• No career Kansas finish better than 13th

Chase Briscoe

• Absent of Top 10 Next Gen stage point (only one of eight drivers)
• 19th-ranked Kansas average finish with no Top 10 result

FEATURED NASCAR FANTASY MATCHUPS

Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson

What a battle this will be. In six races the two have finished 1st and 2nd, Hamlin has won all six of those duels. This includes last year’s Spring race and last weekend’s trip to Dover, Delaware. Chances are always rare in this sport, but I would not be surprised if these two find their way to the top spots once again.

I do not feel confident one way or another. Based off recent successes and Kansas stats, I will take Hamlin.

Bubba Wallace vs. Chase Elliott

Buddies come to a head in this NASCAR Fantasy matchup. Bubba Wallace is looking to put his two straight DNFs from Talladega and Dover in the past. Meanwhile, Elliott continues to provide the most consistency among all Cup Series drivers. Chevrolets, however, have lacked winning speed in the Midwest excursion.

Wallace edges Elliott by a thin margin.

Tyler Reddick vs. Christopher Bell

23XI Racing versus Joe Gibbs Racing. Both Toyotas of Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell have paced solidly at Kansas. In recent weeks, Reddick has climbed the NASCAR standings while Bell has taken a surprising skid. Despite opposite trends, the two are going to likely duke it out from inside the Top 10.

Bell will turn things around, but until then, I like defending track Champion Reddick.

Martin Truex Jr. vs. William Byron

I have not discussed either driver in this final NASCAR Fantasy pairing. Martin Truex Jr. leads William Byron in numerous statistical categories at Kansas including Next Gen stage finishes (three to two) and laps led (103 to 44). Truex Jr. does have the better all-time average finish of 12.9 to Byron’s 14.1, although Byron does have the slightly better Top 10 finishing rate of 58.3% to his opponent’s 54.8%.

Give me Truex Jr. for the Toyota sweep.

What does your NASCAR Fantasy lineup for the 2024 AdventHealth 400 race from Kansas Speedway? Tweet us @LWOSMotorsport. Stay tuned here at LWOS Motorsports for NASCAR news, results, updates, and more.

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