It’s fair to say that over the opening months of the 2024 Formula 1 season, the shocks and stunning announcements in the driver market have provided more intense drama than the on-track action – at least at the very front of the field.
While Max Verstappen continues to hold the sport in a stranglehold, with four victories from the opening five rounds of the season, the headlines have been dominated by some major driver moves over the years to come.
It all began in February, when Mercedes confirmed that seven-times world champion Lewis Hamilton would be leaving their team after 12 seasons with them to join Ferrari in what may well be the third and final team move of his historic career. With Hamilton in at Ferrari, Carlos Sainz Jnr became a free agent and has been the subject of many hundreds of thinkpieces debating which team will and should earn his talents for 2025 and beyond. Fernando Alonso signed a contract extension with Aston Martin, while Nico Hulkenberg was announced just days ago as the first driver of Audi’s factory F1 team entering the sport in 2026.
But despite being the reigning three-time world champion with Red Bull, under contract with his team until the end of the 2028 season, even Verstappen himself has seen intense speculation over his future in the sport. Given his standing, Verstappen could command virtually any seat on the grid if he wanted – but would he consider leaving the team he has often referred to as “a family”?
For
The idea of Verstappen considering giving up everything that he has with his current team when he is enjoying the most dominant run the sport has ever seen seems ludicrous.
Verstappen is driven to win. Not to fight for podiums or points or try and drag a lowly team up the order to the front. He claims he does not find his dominant style of winning any less satisfying for how simple his victories appear to be and his team keep producing cars that are on a whole other level of performance to their rivals. Why would he voluntarily give that up?
Not to forget, Verstappen’s giant of a contract would have come with an extremely generous salary which will require significant compensation to Red Bull should he choose to escape from it now. Even if he wants to go elsewhere, it may prove far, far easier said than done to make it happen.
Against
Although it may seem hard to picture Verstappen ever thinking of leaving the Red Bull empire that he has rebuilt into the dominant force in Formula 1, there are a few reasons why it’s a possibility.
Verstappen has spoken of how he values stability. When rumours swirled about the potential departure of team advisor Helmut Marko from the team, Verstappen said it was “very important that we keep the key people together” within Red Bull. Yet Red Bull has been engulfed in turmoil off-track throughout the early season with reports designer Adrian Newey will leave the team.
Verstappen has also been very open about the fact that he has Racing ambitions beyond Formula 1 – particularly endurance Racing and the Le Mans 24 Hours. While he is committed to F1, he is not wedded to it and could well decide that he wants to pursue other Racing avenues even at the young age of 26.
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I say
If there is anything for sure in Formula 1, it is that nothing is ever out of the realm of possibility.
Imagine just a handful of years ago saying that Lewis Hamilton would go two full seasons without a victory, then depart Mercedes for Ferrari. Or that Nico Hulkenberg would return to the grid and earn one of Audi’s two race seats for 2026. Or that Andretti would be fighting to join the grid as an 11th team that same year.
Although Verstappen may have signed what was likely the biggest and most lucrative contract in F1’s history back in 2022, it’s also possible that he will decide to escape from that commitment. With Red Bull engulfed by internal power struggles, controversies and the potential departure of its most important technical asset, this is not the team it was 12 months ago, no matter how successful they have been.
It is extremely hard to see Red Bull losing their place at the top of the sport any time soon – particularly before the arrival of the new power unit formula in 2026. However, the same could also have been said for Mercedes just a handful of years ago. And three years into the ground effect era, Mercedes are still mediocre by their own standards.
And no matter what a contract may say, there are always options for either party to escape in Formula 1 if desired. Just look at McLaren getting out of their contract with Daniel Ricciardo or Hamilton signing for Ferrari just months after supposedly committing to Mercedes for another two seasons.
But even if there are major changes in the leadership structure of Red Bull over the year to come, that surely would not be enough for Verstappen to consider giving up everything he has in the team that has given him three – almost certainly four – world championship winning cars in consecutive years. There would need to be another team that would be able to offer more than what he has now or will have in the future. And it’s very difficult to see who could.
So yes, it feels more likely than not that Verstappen will race on with Red Bull until at least the end of 2028. But it’s absolutely not a sure thing anymore.
You say
Will Verstappen remain loyal to Red Bull and see out his contract with them? Have your say in this weekend’s poll below.
Will Max Verstappen see out his Red Bull contract until it expires at the end of 2028?
- No opinion (7%)
- No – Verstappen will stop Racing in Formula 1 before his Red Bull contract ends (7%)
- No – Verstappen will move to another team before his Red Bull contract ends (79%)
- Yes – Verstappen will extend his Red Bull contract beyond 2028 (0%)
- Yes – Verstappen will drive for Red Bull until the end of 2028 (7%)
Total Voters: 14
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